March 2019 Brazil Political Risk / by Mark Langevin

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The March 2019 Brazil Risk Score Is 6

and Represents Moderate Country Risk

·       Misery Index/Stable Performance

·       Formal Employment Index/Improved Performance

·       Economic Activity Index/Stable Performance

·       Homicide Rate/Stable Performance

·       Presidential Approval/Stable Performance

The March 2019 Brazil Risk Score of 6 represents improvement from the February score, largely because of the stability of the measures and the notable increase in the formal employment index (for February). The Economic Activity Index reports the January measure and the Homicide measure remains the December 2018 calculation. Globo’s Monitor da Violência has not been updated from its last December 2018 measure, but state by state reports show an uneven pattern of improved performance in some states, such as Mato Grosso do Sul and Pernambuco but poor performance is Rio de Janeiro. For now we are scoring the homicide rate as stable, 1.8 per 100,000 until more accurate data is made public. Last, the presidential approval rating is largely unchanged when reporting the Excellent and Regular measures taken together. For now we score approval as stable but the tendency is falling Excellent ratings and increases in the Poor rating portion.

The high score of 6 returns out performs the average since July and represents a significant increase over February-based on the stability of the measures and notable increase in formal employment during February. The series mean average since July 2018 is 4.89.

Access the Brazil Political Risk Dashboard here.