The April 2019 Brazil Risk Score Is 4: Represents High Country Risk
· Misery Index/Poor Performance
· Formal Employment Index/Stable Performance
· Economic Activity Index/Stable Performance
· Homicide Rate/Improved Performance
· Presidential Approval/Poor Performance
The April 2019 Brazil Risk Score of 4 and represents a measurable decline from the March score, largely because of the uptick in unemployment and decrease in presidential approval. The homicide rate continues to show a measurable decline to achieve improved performance with Globo’s Violence Monitor showing declines for January and February of 2019. The Central Bank’s Economic Activity Index reports the February measure with a slight decline but well within a stable variation and reflective of Brazil’s fragile recovery from the recession (2015-2017). There is no evidence that economic activity has rapidly improved or declined since the last measure was reported. Last, the presidential approval rating, as measured by Ibope, has declined from 68 to 66, taking together both excellent and regular ratings. For now we score approval as poor with a negative outlook.
The score of 4 returns returns the BrazilWorks Brazil Risk score to the average since July and represents a downgrade from the March 2019 moderate score of 6. The series mean average since July 2018 is 4.80.