February 2019 Brazil Political Risk Score / by Mark Langevin

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The February 2019 Brazil Risk Score Is 4

And Represents High Country Risk

·       Misery Index/Stable Performance

·       Formal Employment Index/Poor Performance

·       Economic Activity Index/Stable Performance

·       Homicide Rate/Stable Performance

·       Presidential Approval/Stable Performance

The February 2019 Brazil Risk Score of 4 represents higher risk than last month because of the poor performance of formal job creation lack of improvement in economic activity, the homicide rate and presidential approval. The Central Bank’s measure of economic activity showed a very modest increase but this was canceled out by poor job creation. Globo’s Monitor da Violência has not been updated from its last September 2018 measure, but state by state reports show an uneven pattern of improved performance in some states, such as Mato Grosso do Sul and Pernambuco but poor performance is Rio de Janeiro. For now we are scoring the homicide rate as stable, 1.8 per 100,000 until more accurate data is made public. Last, the presidential approval rating is unchanged. Presidential approval was not measured in February, and President Bolsonaro spent much of the month recuperating from surgery. Now that his is back to work and his congressional agenda under intense deliberation it is likely that polls will be conducted in the coming month. For now we score approval as stable.

The high score of 4 returns to the recent mode observed between October to December 2018 and lies close to the series average of 4.75 since July 2018.